ChainThink report, January 27: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, published a lengthy analysis on social media, warning that the United States is entering the fifth phase—on the brink of systemic collapse—of his "Big Cycle" theory. Multiple indicators suggest society may be sliding into the sixth phase: civil war and systemic collapse. His core assessments include:

· Financial and conflict deterioration: Sky-high government deficits and escalating debt, coupled with record levels of wealth and value disparities, form a "classic lethal combination."

· Populism and radicalization: Political polarization intensifies, moderates are silenced, media becomes a tool for partisan warfare, and the public sphere experiences "the loss of truth."

· Escalation of violence: Recent incidents—including the death of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments—are emblematic signs of transition into the sixth phase.

· Systemic dysfunction: Legal and political institutions increasingly serve as weapons in power struggles, with rules yielding to a logic of "win at any cost."

Ray Dalio notes that current conditions closely mirror the pre-restructuring phase from 1930 to 1945. Without leadership capable of fostering consensus and implementing painful but necessary reforms, society risks repeating cycles of civil war or revolution. Investors and policymakers must confront the forces of the cycle, drive productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace zero-sum conflict with win-win collaboration to prevent irreversible collapse. While the trajectory is difficult to alter, it remains both possible and imperative to mitigate conflict and rebuild broad-based prosperity before descending into the sixth phase.