ChainThink report, March 2: The situation in the Middle East has rapidly deteriorated, with the US and Israel launching a large-scale aerial assault on Iran. Iran has confirmed that several senior officials, including its Supreme Leader, were killed in the strikes. The spillover effect of the conflict has swiftly impacted global energy and financial markets.

Trump stated that military operations against Iran could last approximately four weeks, with US forces having struck hundreds of targets, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), air defense systems, and naval facilities. He emphasized that nuclear facilities were not targeted. The US disclosed the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers and other advanced assets.

Iran announced the formation of an interim leadership committee. The IRGC declared it had launched the ninth phase of Operation "True Promise 4" and claimed to have shot down multiple US-Israeli drones. Iran warned that any attack on energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory strikes on regional oil and gas facilities.

Shipping data shows over 200 vessels anchoring in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, including oil and liquefied natural gas carriers. Several tankers sustained damage along the Persian Gulf coast. Insurance brokers anticipate war risk premiums may rise by 25%–50%.

Goldman Sachs estimates that if full supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists for six weeks, a $18 per barrel risk premium could emerge; if only 50% of supply is disrupted for one month, the premium could reach around $4. International crude prices surged, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil opening significantly higher. Multiple institutions believe that if oil prices approach $90 per barrel, global inflation trends and monetary policy trajectories will face reevaluation.

Risk-off sentiment intensified, driving gold higher, while USD/JPY remained largely stable and USD/CHF declined. EUR/USD fell below 1.18. Major Middle Eastern stock indices dropped 4%–5% intraday, Iran’s stock market suspended trading, and several exchanges in the UAE announced temporary closures. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in March stands at 93.6%, indicating market consensus for continued policy inaction in the near term.

The US Capitol Building will implement enhanced security measures. UK authorities reported an explosion at a British military base in Cyprus. Parts of northern Pakistan have imposed curfews. The EU announced plans to dispatch additional naval vessels to reinforce maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf region. Analysts identify the key variables at this juncture as:

1) Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked;
2) Whether the conflict expands to a broader regional scope;
3) Whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations.

If energy transport remains uninterrupted, markets may experience a phased recovery; however, if oil and gas supplies suffer tangible disruptions, global asset price volatility could further intensify.