Since the recent ETH price rally, ETH has risen by 48% in the past month, driving up the prices of many ETH ecosystem projects. Historically, major blue-chip assets in the ETH ecosystem tend to have a multiplier effect during price cycles. UNI is one of the key blue-chip assets focused on by Trend Research in the ETH ecosystem portfolio. It has risen by 28% in the past month and has potential for further gains if the market trend continues. Additionally, UNI has certain alpha potential in its sector under the beta of the ETH market, which includes expectations of relaxed macro regulation, leading project business data, and structural price increases in the token.

I. Macro Regulatory Situation

Regulatory Ambiguity Period (2021-2023): On September 3, 2021, the SEC initiated an investigation into Uniswap Labs, focusing on its marketing methods and investor services. SEC Chair Gary Gensler repeatedly stated that DeFi platforms may involve securities regulations, emphasizing the need for more regulatory authority. This investigation sparked widespread industry discussion, making the question of whether UNI and similar governance tokens are considered securities a key issue in crypto regulation. On August 30, 2023, Uniswap won a class-action lawsuit against it, with the court dismissing the allegations and finally ruling that the Uniswap protocol was primarily used for legitimate purposes (such as ETH and BTC trading), and lacked clear regulatory definitions to support the plaintiffs' securities claims.

Regulatory Pressure Period (2023-2024): On April 10, 2024, the SEC issued a Wells Notice to Uniswap Labs, alleging that the Uniswap protocol might be operating as an unregistered securities exchange, and its interface and wallet might act as unregistered securities brokers. The UNI token and liquidity provider (LP) tokens might be considered investment contracts. On May 22, Uniswap Labs submitted a 40-page Wells response document, refuting the SEC's allegations. Uniswap Labs stated that its protocol is a general-purpose technology platform, not specifically designed for securities trading, and that 65% of its transaction volume involves non-securities assets (such as ETH, BTC, and stablecoins). Chief Legal Officer Marvin Ammori stated that the SEC needs to redefine "exchange" and "broker" to regulate it, and believes the SEC's allegations are based on incorrect token classifications.

Regulatory Relief Period (2025 to present): On February 25, 2025, the SEC announced the termination of its investigation into Uniswap Labs, no longer pursuing enforcement actions. Uniswap Labs announced this result on X, calling it a "major victory for DeFi," and emphasized its technical legality. This event reflects the shift in the SEC's stance on crypto regulation after the Trump administration took office. On April 8, 2025, the SEC invited Uniswap Labs and Coinbase to participate in a crypto roundtable to discuss crypto trading regulation. On May 5, 2025, several Republican lawmakers from the House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee jointly released a new discussion draft on crypto industry regulation, continuing and expanding the core content of the previous "Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century" (FIT21 Act). The new draft further details and expands the regulatory framework for digital assets on its basis. The 49th page of the new draft aims to clarify that transactions involving the sale of digital commodities do not constitute securities as long as they do not involve buyers obtaining ownership rights in the issuer's business, profits, or assets. The House plans to release an updated text of the House Digital Asset Market Structure Act on May 29. The updated text follows the discussion draft released on May 5, and the advancement of this market structure legislation is widely seen as the foundational blueprint for future US regulation and trading of digital assets. The House will deliberate on the crypto market structure bill on June 10.

Currently, from the SEC's substantive termination of its investigation into Uniswap Labs at the beginning of 2025 to the current definition in the crypto market structure bill that does not constitute a security, Uniswap's current token economics model means that UNI no longer faces the risk of being sued. With the Trump administration and its team taking office, the direction of crypto regulation is aimed at designing the classification method of crypto assets, the Howey Test, and the division of regulatory agency functions in a way that adapts to the development of the crypto industry, and engaging in discussions with the US crypto leadership team. Uniswap Labs plays an important advisory role in this process. After full relaxation, there may be further regulatory benefits expected in the future.

I. Project Business Situation

1. Top-tier business data

Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market. Its TVL is currently 5.12 billion USD, with a 30-day trading volume of 84.5 billion USD, ranking second after Pancake. Before the launch of Binance Alpha, Uniswap's trading volume was long the highest in the market, generating 929 million USD in annual revenue, ranking seventh. If calculated using traditional valuation methods, the P/E ratio is 4.5–6.4, while Coinbase's P/E ratio is approximately 33–42, Apple's is around 28–35, and Tesla's is about 50–70. If the "fee switch" for UNI can be activated in the future or if regulatory easing allows it to expand financial application scenarios (currently UNI holders do not participate in profit distribution), compared to its business profitability, the current market value is significantly undervalued.

According to the Uniswap Foundation's Q1 2025 financial summary, as of March 31, 2025, the fund held 53.4 million USD in cash and stablecoins, 15.8 million UNI (valued in UNI), and 257 ETH. Calculated at the closing exchange rate on May 28, 2025, this equates to 150 million USD in tokens. The fund's turnover period is expected to last until January 2027, and it currently has a sound financial condition.

2. Token Economics Empowerment Attempts

In the past, the main way to generate income from UNI was to add UNI to specific trading pools as LPs, stake UNI to participate in DAO governance and propose buybacks or liquidity incentives. However, these earnings were indirect and usually had low yields. Holding UNI directly did not generate income, which is the main reason why UNI's token price could not rise to a high level. However, Uniswap Labs has been continuously attempting to empower the token economics, proposing multiple fee switches. Due to regulatory risks, none have been implemented. The latest fee switch proposal was restarted in February 2024, passed a technical vote in May, and is expected to further advance on-chain voting in the second half of 2025. Combined with the gradual progress of the regulatory framework, the fee switch may be activated in the future.

In addition to the fee switch, Uniswap's newly launched Unichain also provides new application scenarios for UNI. Unichain is a Layer 2 (L2) blockchain announced by Uniswap Labs on October 10, 2024, based on the Superchain framework of Optimism's OP Stack, and officially launched its mainnet on February 13, 2025. Uniswap Labs CEO Hayden Adams believes, "After years of building and expanding DeFi products, we have seen the areas where blockchain needs improvement and the conditions required to continue advancing the Ethereum roadmap. Unichain will provide the speed and cost savings of L2, better cross-chain access to liquidity, and greater decentralization."

Like other L2s, Unichain also has a validator network, using UNI as the staking token. To become a validator in the Unichain Validator Network (UVN), node operators must stake UNI on the Ethereum mainnet. The amount staked determines the probability of being selected into the active validator set. Revenue comes from 65% of net chain income (including base fees, priority fees, and MEV), distributed according to staking weight. Although the official has not directly disclosed the specific staking scale, Uniswap Labs continues to support Unichain. If the yield and ecological scale gradually expand, it will attract more UNI stakers to become validators and earn income.

II. Token Situation

UNI's current circulating market cap is 4.2 billion, FDV 6.7 billion, fully circulated, with 37% of the tokens staked and locked.

Contract holdings 448 million, OI/MC about 10.6%, aggregate long-short ratio 1.02, Binance account long-short ratio 2.16, large account long-short ratio 3.87, more long positions from large accounts. Since the ETH price rally, UNI's OI has been gradually increasing, and the derivatives market is active.

In the spot K-line chart, in the pattern of ETH's price increase in November last year, UNI and ETH showed similar movements, but the volatility was about 2–3 times that of ETH. However, in this April's ETH price increase, their movements were similar, but ETH's gain was higher than UNI's. If the market trend continues, UNI may have further potential for catch-up gains.

III. Summary

Since Donald Trump was officially elected President of the United States in 2025, how to regulate and integrate the crypto industry has become the most important topic. As the largest Dex protocol in the current crypto market, how the US regulates UNI will become a model for the entire industry. Uniswap Labs has also actively participated in the formulation of regulatory rules. Combined with the multiplier effect of ETH, it may face structural benefits. Its project itself has top-tier business data, profitable profits, and good financial status. Through the promotion of Unichain and the proposal of the fee switch, it may bring new empowerment to the token. If you are optimistic about the future, UNI is one of the key blue-chip assets in the ETH ecosystem worth paying attention to.

Author: Trend Research