At 14:00 Beijing Time on November 1, 10 hours after Binance resumed withdrawals, the platform processed $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $3.64 billion—equivalent to 2.1% of its $171 billion total assets, based on the latest available reserve proof as of October 31.

On the same day, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of $643.2 million—the largest single-day outflow in October. The convergence of these two data streams provided the first quantifiable benchmark for trust cost in the crypto market following the $6.3 billion heist. Binance stated that 95% of the stolen assets have been covered, withdrawal volumes have stabilized after an initial peak, and the reserve proof as of October 31 confirmed full coverage across ten major asset classes in its treasury.

On-chain: $3.64 Billion Net Outflow

Binance began restoring withdrawals in phases at 14:00 Beijing Time on November 1. By 14:36, all 15 networks and assets—including Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT, USDC, BNB, SOL, and XRP—were fully restored. The withdrawal window remained open until 23:30 Beijing Time (15:30 UTC). Binance announced on X that during this period, it processed $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, yielding a net outflow of approximately $3.64 billion.

This net outflow represents 2.1% of Binance’s total assets of $17.1 billion, with the data benchmarked against the most recent reserve proof available as of October 31.

Binance confirmed that withdrawal volumes have declined and stabilized post-peak, while deposit inflows remain substantial.

The cyberattack occurred at 04:05 Beijing Time on October 30, when U.S. equity markets had already closed. The first full trading day in the U.S. came on Friday, October 31.

Thus, on-chain and ETF data are offset by roughly one day, together forming a complete picture of capital flows.

ETF: Institutions Move First, but Structural Floor Intact

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $643.2 million on October 31 (Friday), marking the first full trading day following the hack and setting the record for the largest single-day outflow in October.

The hacker began transferring assets at 4:05 PM EDT on October 29, after the U.S. stock market had closed. On Thursday, ETFs had posted $17.2 million in net inflows. The Friday outflows erased the cumulative $441 million net inflow from the previous four days, resulting in a weekly net outflow of approximately $202 million and a monthly net outflow of about $516 million. Since listing, total net inflows have declined to $57.4 billion, with total assets under management around $103.2 billion.

Ethereum ETFs saw a $155.7 million outflow on the same day, continuing a five-day losing streak, with a weekly cumulative outflow of ~$431 million and a monthly net outflow of ~$1.61 billion. Solana ETFs recorded a $10.8 million outflow, also their fifth consecutive day of outflows, with only two days of net inflows this month.

From an absolute standpoint, the $643.2 million daily outflow in Bitcoin ETFs did not breach the structural floor: cumulative net inflows of $57.4 billion and total AUM of $103.2 billion show no signs of systemic withdrawal. However, this is the first full trading day post-event, and sustained trends require further data validation.

Market Pricing Stable, But Bearish Sentiment Emerging

Bitcoin dropped around 4% on Friday to approximately $76,400, triggering over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions liquidation—significantly more restrained compared to prior major sell-offs.

By Saturday, Bitcoin stabilized near $77,520, down 3.3% from a week ago; Ethereum traded around $2,251, down 3.9%; Solana hovered near $96, down 4.5%. The overall crypto market cap remained stable at approximately $2.7 trillion.

Derivatives pricing indicates a shift toward bearish sentiment: the probability of Ethereum rising to $3,000 before dropping to $1,500 was priced at 48.7%, down from 61.3% a week earlier; the likelihood of Solana rising to $160 before falling to $40 increased to 53.7%. On the macro front, the Fed maintained rates between 3.75% and 4% on November 1, but two officials voted for rate hikes, with market-implied odds of a December hike exceeding 70%.

The current data reflects the initial 48- to 72-hour response following the incident. Two key nodes will determine the subsequent trajectory.

The first is Binance’s full reserve proof: the snapshot as of October 31 was completed prior to the massive withdrawal wave. An updated version incorporating the latest outflow data is expected by late November—this will be the first official report reflecting the post-hack reserve status.

The second is the sustainability of ETF fund flows: whether this outflow was a one-day panic or a trend of systematic withdrawal requires at least a week of accumulated data.

Author: Ku Li, DeepFlow TechFlow