Today is the birthday of Ethereum, the second-largest blockchain project in the world. Ethereum has gone through a decade, and during this time, ETH started from $0.3 and rose to over $4,000, with a growth of more than 13,000 times, making it one of the top 28 global assets. Tonight, Ethereum founder Vitalik will appear in the ten-year anniversary live stream to revisit Ethereum's history.

Returning to the present, the community's call for ETH to reach $4,000 is increasing, but ETH is showing some signs of weakness. At this ten-year milestone, could a selling crisis emerge?

Cryptocurrency Market Crisis Signals

Overall, the market has been on an upward trend recently. Although many altcoins have fallen, BTC and ETH remain stable, and funds are unusually active. There are often coins that surge by more than 200% in a single day, such as OMNI surging 200%, cfx rising 40% in a short period, and PUMP jumping 20% within an hour. There are still many opportunities to make money in the market.

However, there are clear signs of divergence and withdrawal of major funds.

In this round of market movement, the leading altcoin mainline has focused on XRP and PENGU, which have consistently led the market. Recently, these two coins have shown top signals, while coins like ENA and CRV, which were expected to take over last week, have also seen a decline after rapid price increases. Currently, the market lacks new narrative leaders; only BNB and its ecosystem tokens have taken a speculative approach, and there is no longer any sense of support from major funds.

Additionally, newly launched tokens have reached new annual highs. After a token was issued two weeks before a significant pump, it experienced a drop of over 60%. TREE, a new coin, dropped 50% since its launch. Additionally, the well-known L2 project Linea is about to issue tokens, and projects such as Opensea, Polymarket, Xpl, etc., are also waiting to be listed, which will continue to drain the current market's liquidity. Unfortunately, the altcoins have just been drained by the crypto stock market, and now they will face another crash from new coins.

As more new coins are listed and break below their issue price, they may become a catalyst for a market crash.

Concerns in the US Equity Market Earnings Season

Starting from Wednesday, the market will face a series of key events: On that day, the U.S. will release the second-quarter GDP data, and a few hours later, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Following that, tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports after the market closes on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the highly anticipated U.S. July non-farm employment report will be released.

Each of these events alone could cause market volatility. The U.S. equity market has rebounded significantly from the April low, and valuations are currently high. Therefore, this "super week" is considered a severe test for the market.

Mike O’Rourke, an analyst at Jones Trading, believes that this week "may become the most critical week of the year," and the outcome will test Wall Street's confidence in the current market.

Looking at the charts, many U.S. equities are showing worrying trends and face the risk of breaking through their tops.

On-chain Data

Glassnode data shows that the ratio of long-term holders to short-term holders (LTH/STH) for Bitcoin has decreased by 11% within 30 days, indicating that funds are continuously shifting to the circulation market. Currently, long-term holders are starting to sell off, and although the selling by long-term holders tends to occur on the left side, the market may not immediately reach a peak, but it faces significant consolidation pressure.

Additionally, the number of profitable addresses for both BTC and ETH has reached over 90%, with only 0.17% of BTC addresses in loss and around 5% of ETH addresses in loss, indicating a huge pressure for profit-taking in the market.

Market Trend

ETH's trend shows clear risk signals. The daily RSI has been severely overbought, and there is a clear divergence. The 12-hour line has repeatedly tested the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is showing increasing weakness, increasing the probability of a breakout. Once broken, it would mean that the support that Ethereum has held throughout this cycle will be broken, and the market may face a prolonged adjustment. In the short term, the level of 3650-3700 might be able to hold for a while, but once 3650 breaks, it could lead to a stampede-like drop to the range of 3300-3500. If ETH cannot strongly hold the 4000 level in the next 1-2 weeks, there will always be an expectation of downward adjustment.

BTC, similarly, after being called a bottom at 115,000 last week, has rebounded to near 120,000, facing a new direction choice. If it breaks below 116,500, it could test the range of 110,000-114,000.

Author: ChainThink, Aaron

Editor: ChainThink, Charlie