One week ago on August 13, OKX officially announced that it has decided to strategically upgrade X Layer and upgrade the OKB economic model. OKB has become the only native Gas token of X Layer, and 60 million OKB will be burned, fixing the total supply of OKB at 21 million. OKB surged 207% on the day, and after several days of consolidation, OKX founder announced that 90% of OKB had been completed with chain migration, fully transferred to XLayer. OKB then continued a new round of trend, and has now broken through the $200 mark, with many community members expecting $300 or $500. Is it still possible to chase now?

We need to make an assessment from aspects such as market capitalization comparison, price movement, and the future vision of XLAYER. If you have been holding at a low price, you can still use the right-side profit-taking method to bet on higher gains. However, for those who missed the opportunity, the author believes that chasing at the current price has a poor risk-reward ratio.

Valuation Comparison

Firstly, in terms of market capitalization, OKB has reached $4 billion, ranking 33rd among all crypto assets on CoinMarketCap. Compared to BGB with $5.2 billion and BNB with over $110 billion, there may still be room for growth.

However, this kind of comparison is not reasonable. The reason why OKX officially made OKB the Gas token of XLAYER is to build it into a leading public chain focused on DeFi, payments, and RWA scenarios. Therefore, the valuation of OKB is not based on the platform coin logic. After all, OKX has always been pursuing compliance, and the OKX exchange entity, including user data and profit figures, serves the listing system, making it difficult to support the value of OKB.

Before the burn, the market capitalization of OKB was $7.2 billion. Theoretically, it needs to reach over $340 to have the same market capitalization as before. However, OKB is now a public chain token, and its valuation logic has changed.

The current TVL of XLAYER is only $13 million, ranking 95th among public chains. Of course, since XLAYER is still in a very early stage and relies on OKX's users and web3 wallet users, there is great potential for future growth, but there are high uncertainties later. A $4 billion market capitalization is already considered a mid-to-large public chain token. $5 billion is a clear barrier for most projects.

K-Line Movement

From the K-line perspective, the current movement is good, with no upper limit and in a strong bullish trend. Therefore, for those who have built positions early, they can completely adopt the right-side profit-taking method. Profit protection can be achieved by using common break-even methods such as breaking below the top range or the daily moving average MA5. Before a break, you can bet on higher returns.

However, for those who haven't boarded yet, the next resistance area is between $220-$240, which is a strong Fibonacci extension level. Higher targets require ecological support. The key support level is between $170-$190. If it doesn't break, it may continue to surge or retest the top, but the risk-reward ratio is not very suitable. There is only a short-term trading opportunity, as the probability of a direct V-shaped crash is relatively low. For those who missed the opportunity, setting a stop-loss and doing some short-term trades is a relatively feasible strategy to compensate, or waiting for the next breakout opportunity.

Author: Aaron, ChainThink