Project Overview

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform founded in 2018 by Shayne Coplan, headquartered in Manhattan, New York, USA. It allows users to bet and trade on the future outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies. It is hailed as one of the largest prediction market platforms globally, aggregating user opinions through the "wisdom of the crowd" mechanism to provide real-time event probability predictions, helping users gain insights from political, economic, sports, and pop culture fields.

Key Milestones:

• 2022: Appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, former CFTC commissioner, as chairman of the advisory board.
• 2023: Gained popularity due to the Titan submersible incident prediction, with over 60 active markets on the platform.
• 2024: Accurately predicted the probability of Biden's withdrawal after the presidential debate (rising from 20% to 70%), and showed a peak Trump win rate of 53.3% in the election.
• Funding Status:
• June 2025: Polymarket completed a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund, with a valuation of $1 billion.
• Early October: ICE announced plans to invest $2 billion in Polymarket, with a company valuation of approximately $900 million.

Currently, there are rumors that Polymarket is undergoing a new round of financing, targeting a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion, which is more than ten times its $1 billion valuation this June.

Airdrop Activities

On October 24 this year, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer Modabber confirmed plans to launch a token and airdrop. However, the official has not yet released specific airdrop rules. As a project valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, the token airdrop is likely to be significant. However, given that Polymarket already has 1.42 million unique addresses, the final rules may be quite strict, and it remains unknown whether most users will be able to successfully receive the airdrop.

Only following the principle of not missing out on big airdrops, based on current market speculation about the rules and gameplay, we attempt to interact accordingly.

Task One: Real Trading

Polymarket has 1.42 million unique addresses, but only 27,000 users have generated transaction volumes of more than $50,000. The majority of users (81%) have transaction volumes below $5,000. Therefore, one of the criteria may be based on "transaction volume at the time of market settlement," rather than the number of transactions or daily/weekly active users.

Since there are no fees for placing orders, frequent buying and selling, according to some users, has triggered risk control measures. It is possible to try scanning the end of the trading session, for example, the price of crypto will reach how much, the probability of interest rate cuts will reach 98%-99%, etc., and buy with a probability of 99%+ just hours before settlement.

Note the diversity of trading events

Polymarket covers a wide range of topics, including politics, crypto, football, earnings reports, and economics. Choose the ones you are most familiar with as your main trading focus, and play with small amounts on other events. This will help improve your PNL and overall win rate when claiming settlements, making it look better.

Task Two: Oracle Challenge

The oracle challenge on Polymarket refers to the situation where the adjudication mechanism of third-party oracles (such as UMA) in the Polymarket prediction market has inherent vulnerabilities, leading to market results being manipulated by large holders of tokens, thereby causing a crisis of trust in the platform's "truth market." Completing the oracle challenge helps the platform improve its security.

Each vote on Polymarket has a link to oracle.uma. Click on it - connect your wallet - vote - stake a certain amount to compete for the challenge prize, and wait until the challenge ends. This is the oracle challenge mechanism.  

https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1761486381779

https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1761486381779

This year, Polymarket also had several controversies regarding oracles, such as the Zelenskyy suit prediction event, so the oracle challenge could also be an important addition.

Task Three: Provide Liquidity (slightly more difficult, those who find it hard to understand can just participate in the first two steps)

Liquidity is divided into two types: one is forming LPs, and the other is holding positions in highly anticipated prediction events.

    1. Forming LPs, this is somewhat challenging. Go to the rewards section on the top right corner of your account, you need to place orders on both sides, provide liquidity, with an amount greater than the required minimum, place the orders close to the current price, the optimal choice is to use forward settlement, high liquidity, or do proper hedging, otherwise it is easy to lose money.

However, this might be very important for Poly's airdrop, because liquidity is the core of the prediction market.

https://polymarket.com/rewards

https://polymarket.com/rewards

   2. Holding positions in highly anticipated prediction events, this is simple, just hold them, and get annualized interest of 4% per hour. However, long-term holding definitely carries risks. See the link for details on which events qualify:

https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/trading/holding-rewards

https://t.co/iU2Yfsv98r

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.

Official Website: https://polymarket.com/

Official Twitter: https://x.com/Polymarket

Author: Aaron, ChainThink

Editor: Charlie, ChainThink