It's time for a critical interest rate meeting. Tomorrow at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the latest interest rate decision, and at 2:30 AM, Powell will speak, setting the tone for the interest rate market. Today, Trump once again directed his criticism at Fed Chair Powell, accusing him of being slow to act on rate cuts.

Whether the market will become more accommodative in the future depends on whether Powell will yield to Trump's "pressure" tonight. BTC led the market to a collective decline today, with weak market conditions and continued declines in altcoins. Will this lead to a second major crash, or is it already a good opportunity to buy the dip?

Trend Viewpoints

The author believes that a significant drop is currently unlikely, and a sharp rise is also difficult. The market is in a range-bound trend, suitable for shorting at high levels and buying at low levels. Here are the reasons:

Reasons Why There Won't Be a Sharp Drop Soon:

1. The second test of 103,000 on October 17th was sufficient, with enough accumulation, forming a strong support over a long period. Additionally, BTC is currently in an accumulation phase, with Bitcoin's market share consistently increasing, thus the strong remain strong, and BTC has limited downward space;

2. Recent Sino-US talks and tariff benefits, along with rate cuts, mean that global capital markets are still in an upward cycle, making it difficult for them to fall continuously independently;

Reasons Why There Won't Be a Sharp Rise in the Short Term:

1. The drop on October 11th cleaned up leveraged positions and damaged existing market funds. The continuous decline in altcoins over the past two weeks shows that the funds have not been sufficiently involved;

2. The Federal Reserve currently maintains strong control over the pace of rate cuts, without continuous large-scale liquidity injections, and basically maintains the current long bull and slow bull trend;

3. New coins continue to be listed, and airdrop projects are emerging one after another. The enthusiasm for new coin subscriptions remains strong, but the profit effect has declined, indicating weak market funds. Moreover, there is no consolidation to push a new leading project, and such a trend is unlikely to support the start of a new major bull market.

BTC Market Analysis

Looking at the weekly chart, BTC had a strong bullish candle last week, and the current week's pullback has not broken the 109,000-111,000 range, which can still be considered as an effective upward movement. The key trend point of the weekly MA30 has not been broken, and after the pullback, it remains slightly bullish in a range-bound pattern.

Looking at the 2-day chart, it is very clear that there have been two sell-offs above 116,000, creating heavy resistance, but it may also form a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, with the right shoulder position also within 109,000-111,000. If it does not break through, it will be bullish afterwards;

Currently, BTC is exactly in the middle position. Looking at the 4-hour chart, multiple moving averages are intertwined. In the short term, there is pressure above 116,000, and support at 111,000, making it suitable for shorting at high levels and buying at low levels. However, after the range-bound period, if it does not break the key level, it is still biased towards the bullish side. Short-term shorts should be limited to short-term trades. If BTC can remain stable for the next few days, it still has the potential to break through 116,000 and challenge the range of 118,000-120,000.

ETH is not analyzed here. Prioritize buying BTC for long positions.

Author: Aaron, ChainThink