Due to Trump's cash distribution policy and the U.S. government's potential end of the shutdown, the crypto market saw a general rise in the past 24 hours.
Trump stated yesterday that he would pay each American at least $2000 in tariff dividends, while the probability of the U.S. government ending the shutdown this week has surged to 85%. Today, the Senate passed the shutdown resolution, and it now depends on how the Democrats will argue within the next few days.

BTC broke above $106,000, ETH broke above $3,600. Since the bottoming out last week, BTC has risen by 7%, and ETH has risen by over 10%. Is it time to take profits now?

Summary of Recent Risk and Opportunity Points

Opportunity Points:

1. The biggest positive for the entire market is the upcoming mid-term elections for the U.S. president in April next year. Before that, Trump has the potential to pressure the Federal Reserve and release more crypto-friendly policies, improving market liquidity. Currently, the market has already started to react to this positive news. This is a substantive and sustainable benefit, so the market trend before April is still worth expecting;

2. Interest rate cuts, tariff dividends, various ETFs launching, 401k pensions, etc., are all expected to bring new funds into the cryptocurrency market.

Risk Points:

1. After the tariff crash in April this year, the market entered a structural bull run that lasted half a year. During this period, altcoins were extremely poor, and operations were extremely difficult, but BTC led the market in April-May, and ETH led in June-August. After mid-August this year, ETH's market share peaked and then entered a two-month altcoin season;

First, funds moved to mainstream coins: BNB, OKB, DOGE; then moved to small altcoins: alpha, airdrops, new token launches; Binance memecoins. The strongest wealth effect was from mid-August to National Day. BTC and ETH had a final surge, luring traders into a phase of a small bear market. In other words, the real market downturn only lasted a little over a month. Therefore, the current adjustment time is not sufficient.

BTC, ETH Market Analysis

Currently, BTC is rebounding as expected with strong performance. In the short term, there is resistance between $106,500 and $107,000. As long as it doesn't break below $102,500, it is expected to continue challenging the $108,000 to $110,000 range after a consolidation under the influence of positive news;

ETH is similar. As long as it doesn't break below $3,400, it still has the potential to challenge the $3,750 to $3,900 range after a consolidation this week;

For the medium to long term, we have already mentioned that investing in BTC below $100,000 is a good opportunity. There is still hope for BTC to reach a new high of $120,000 to $130,000 in the next six months. However, the overall market may be quite fluctuating in November. Short-term traders can appropriately reduce their positions above $107,000, while medium to long-term investors should consider adding more positions at lower levels according to the previous investment strategy. (Personal subjective opinion, not investment advice)