ChainThink message, January 27: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, published a lengthy analysis on social media, warning that the United States is entering the fifth phase—on the brink of systemic collapse—of his "Great Cycle" theory. Multiple indicators suggest society may be sliding toward the sixth phase (civil war and systemic collapse). His core assessments include:

· Financial and conflict deterioration: Sky-high government deficits and escalating debt, coupled with record levels of wealth and value disparities, constitute a "classic deadly combination."

· Populism and radicalization: Political polarization intensifies, moderates are silenced, media becomes a tool for partisan warfare, and the public sphere experiences "truth erosion."

· Escalation of violence: Recent incidents such as the death of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments serve as typical markers of transition into the sixth phase.

· Systemic dysfunction: Legal and political institutions increasingly function as weapons in power struggles, where rules are subordinated to a logic of "win at any cost."

Ray Dalio stated that the current trajectory closely resembles the pre-restructuring phase from 1930 to 1945. Without leadership capable of forging consensus and implementing painful but necessary reforms, society risks repeating the cycle of civil war or revolution. Investors and policymakers must acknowledge the force of cycles, drive productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace zero-sum confrontation with win-win collaboration to prevent irreversible collapse. Although the trajectory is difficult to alter, it remains both possible and imperative to mitigate conflict and rebuild broad-based prosperity before descending into the sixth phase through wise choices.