ChainThink report: On February 4, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media stating that Bitcoin, after reaching a high of $97,000 on January 15, rapidly plunged to $73,000 on February 4, swiftly breaking through the psychological support level of $80,000. Under prevailing panic sentiment, the overhang supply (above $80,000) saw a net outflow exceeding 610,000 BTC within 20 days—accounting for 88% of total outflows—becoming the primary source of selling pressure.

However, on-chain URPD data reveals a critical structural shift: the profit-taking pressure from long-term holders has significantly diminished (representing only 9.7% of the reduction), indicating a clear reluctance among long-term holders to sell. Meanwhile, strong buying demand emerged in the $70,000–$80,000 range, with a net accumulation of approximately 450,000 BTC—nearly double the absorption capacity observed in the $80,000–$90,000 range—suggesting capital is actively "buying the dip," deploying real capital to establish layered resistance.

Murphy noted that this cycle differs from past ones in that bulls have demonstrated sustained, structured defense during the downturn, with concentrated holding zones gradually shifting downward rather than collapsing in a catastrophic break. Despite widespread bearish forecasts predicting a potential floor at $50,000 or even $30,000, once short-sellers compress the bull defense to its limit and supply-side exhaustion sets in, the market may witness a powerful counterattack from long-side forces.