The current market exhibits a typical "bearish dominance with bullish resistance" structure. Although on-chain metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score (0.78) indicate entry into historical undervaluation territory, macro-level high-interest rate suppression and ongoing institutional position adjustments mean the market still faces significant downside black swan risks in the medium term.

The current crypto market is under dual pressure from "macro tightening" and "leverage unwinding." The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.27%, while the DXY Dollar Index strengthens above 97.76, directly suffocating liquidity in risk assets.

Regulation is gradually being streamlined, and builders continue to build. So, two things remain before the bull market arrives.

Short-term downside pressure remains dominant, with leveraged liquidations not yet fully reset and heightened fear sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 14–17, extreme fear zone). However, on-chain SOPR approaching below 1 and high ETH staking rates indicate resilience among long-term holders, suggesting that extreme fear may serve as an early signal for potential rebound.

As of February 3, 2026, the global cryptocurrency market is undergoing a "stress test" triggered by a sharp reversal in macro policy expectations. Following the liquidity collapse dubbed "Black Sunday," the market today shows fragile signs of stabilization.

Bitcoin (BTC) triggered the largest derivatives liquidation cascade since October 2025 after breaking below the key psychological support level of $80,000, with institutional capital showing a notable net outflow in late January, reflecting a defensive posture among large players amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Today's crypto market experienced an irrational leveraged liquidation wave, with Bitcoin (BTC) hit by rising US Treasury yields and ongoing institutional ETF redemptions (recorded -$817.87M outflow on 1.29).

If you've ever had your wallet "decentralized" in the crypto world, this article is written for you.

The market is currently in a "defensive consolidation" phase. Bitcoin has broken below the critical 90,000 USD level, weakening short-term momentum, yet strong structural support remains near 88,000 USD. Despite macro headwinds (geopolitical tensions, ETF outflows), on-chain data (SOPR bottoming) suggests that panic selling is nearing exhaustion.