ChainThink report, March 5: The U.S. Department of State is ramping up resources to evacuate American citizens stranded in the Middle East, while the Pentagon is urgently increasing military personnel tasked with intelligence gathering for military operations. These measures underscore that the Trump administration clearly failed to adequately prepare for a larger-scale war. U.S. Central Command is requesting the Pentagon dispatch additional military intelligence personnel to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations targeting Iran for at least 100 days and potentially extending into September—far beyond the initial four-week timeline envisioned by Trump.

As the U.S. and Israel may continue to extend the conflict front, the likelihood of direct involvement by other nations in offensive strikes against Iran is declining. Iran has been significantly weakened, with the frequency of its drone and missile attacks dropping markedly from initial wartime levels. Meanwhile, the UK, France, and Germany remain cautious and restrained in their approach to striking Iran. UK Prime Minister Starmer explicitly stated that British aircraft could participate in regional defensive interception but would not join "offensive operations." Although France has deployed the Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean, it continues to emphasize the deployment’s defensive nature. Germany faces intense domestic anti-war sentiment and constitutional constraints on overseas offensive deployments, making direct combat participation the least likely among all major powers.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of direct military strikes against Iran by various countries before March 31 on the prediction market Polymarket has been consistently declining. The current probabilities of UK, France, and Germany engaging in hostilities stand at 16%, 16%, and 7%, respectively. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, previously highly likely to be drawn into conflict due to the U.S.-Iran escalation, have seen their engagement probabilities drop to 33% and 35%.