ChainThink report: On March 5, the U.S. Department of State is increasing resources to evacuate American citizens stranded in the Middle East, while the Pentagon is urgently ramping up military intelligence personnel tasked with gathering intelligence for military operations. These measures reveal that the Trump administration clearly failed to adequately prepare for a larger-scale conflict. U.S. Central Command is requesting the Pentagon dispatch additional military intelligence personnel to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days and potentially extend into September—far beyond the initial four-week timeline envisioned by Trump.

As the U.S. and Israel may continue to prolong the conflict, the likelihood of direct involvement by other nations in offensive strikes against Iran is diminishing. Iran has already been significantly weakened, and the frequency of its drone and missile attacks abroad has markedly declined compared to the early stages of the war. Meanwhile, the UK, France, and Germany continue to exhibit cautious restraint in targeting Iran. UK Prime Minister Starmer explicitly stated that British aircraft could participate in regional defensive intercepts but would not join "offensive operations." Although France has deployed the Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean, it continues to emphasize a defensive posture. Germany faces intense domestic anti-war sentiment, and constitutional constraints severely limit offensive overseas deployments, making direct combat involvement the least likely among the three.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of direct military strikes against Iran by various countries before March 31 is steadily declining. The current probabilities of UK, France, and Germany joining the conflict stand at 16%, 16%, and 7%, respectively. Saudi Arabia and Qatar—previously considered highly likely to be drawn into the conflict due to U.S.-Iran tensions—have seen their participation probabilities drop to 33% and 35%.