Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Ghost of Stagflation Returns, with CPI and PCE Data Becoming Key Variables

Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Ghost of Stagflation Returns, with CPI and PCE Data Becoming Key Variables

2026-03-07 19:17

ChainThink News, March 7: As the situation in Iran further deteriorates, uncertainty over future developments has triggered significant market volatility this week. Recent data indicates that the Federal Reserve will be compelled to address rising inflation and declining employment to mitigate the risk of stagflation. Below are the key events to watch in the upcoming week (all times in Beijing Time):


Monday 23:00, U.S. February New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations;

Wednesday 20:30, U.S. February Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year, Unadjusted Core CPI Year-on-Year;

U.S. February Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month, Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Month-on-Month;

Friday 15:00, UK January Three-Month GDP Month-on-Month, January Manufacturing/Industrial Output Month-on-Month, January Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance for Goods;

Friday 20:30, U.S. January Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year/Month-on-Month, U.S. January Personal Spending Month-on-Month, U.S. Fourth Quarter Real GDP Annualized Rate Revised Value, U.S. January Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month;

Friday 22:00, U.S. January JOLTs Job Openings, U.S. March One-Year Inflation Expectations Initial Reading, U.S. March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Initial Reading.


If the core CPI and core PCE price index month-on-month data exceed expectations, it may further strengthen the U.S. dollar; conversely, weak data could weigh on the dollar and fuel a rebound in spot gold. Additionally, Oracle (ORCL.N) is scheduled to release its earnings report after U.S. market close on Tuesday. (Jinshi)

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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