ChainThink report, on March 9, senior strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a market crash for the remainder of this year from 20% to 35%, citing escalating Iran-related conflicts disrupting global markets. These revisions reflect mounting market concerns: prolonged Middle East conflict combined with inflationary pressures are expected to compress household spending, erode corporate profit margins, and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs data shows hedge funds increasing short positions on U.S. equities at a pace not seen in nearly five years. In the week ending March 6, hedge funds increased their short positions on stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 8.3%. Goldman Sachs notes that with no clear signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions, momentum traders are intensifying their bearish bets on U.S. equities, anticipating further market pain ahead. (Jinshi)