ChainThink report, March 10: Bitfinex released a report stating that "despite the dual shocks of escalated geopolitical tensions during Iran's 'Black Friday' two weeks ago and disappointing U.S. nonfarm employment data—adding only 92,000 jobs—the Bitcoin support zone of $60,000–$64,000 has shown unexpectedly resilient strength. Since then, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, which may impact future Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings, as energy accounts for approximately 9% of final CPI calculations. This emerging inflationary pressure implies potential headwinds for all risk assets."

However, two opposing forces are currently at play regarding Bitcoin. First, Bitcoin tends to exhibit greater volatility and faster price swings compared to other risk assets. As its correlation with high-risk tech sectors increases and its correlation with safe-haven assets like gold declines, Bitcoin often experiences more pronounced downside moves before other risk assets begin to fall. Yet, it also typically bottoms out earlier than other risk assets. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 or Nasdaq over the past two quarters, this dynamic may now be taking effect.

The current market state can be described as a "deleveraging wave." Retail investor sentiment remains highly cautious; since the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin has experienced a 52% peak-to-trough drawdown, effectively extinguishing nearly all speculative bubbles in the market. This is corroborated by the leverage reset index—the ratio of total open interest (OI) to exchange spot reserves—which has now fallen to a multi-year low of 0.32. This indicates that current price discovery is primarily driven by spot demand rather than leveraged derivatives, laying the foundation for a high-conviction mean reversion trade following macro-level volatility contraction."