ChainThink report: On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching January’s figure and aligning with economists’ expectations. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI increased 2.5% year-over-year, also in line with forecasts.

However, since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, benchmark crude oil futures have experienced significant volatility. The average trading price so far this month has been approximately $82 per barrel, compared to around $65 per barrel in February. As a result, inflation data for March may prove even hotter.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, estimates that based on empirical rules, every $10 increase in oil prices per barrel could lift the Department of Labor’s inflation reading by about 0.2 percentage points. While there are minor variations in calculations among economists, most agree that oil prices will push up inflation in March. Economists also note that due to the government shutdown last year, housing cost growth data for October was missing, artificially suppressing current year-over-year inflation readings. This downward bias is expected to disappear in April’s inflation report, leading to a rebound in measured inflation rates. (Jinshi)