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After the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen below 1%

After the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen below 1%

2026-03-11 21:17

ChainThink report, on March 11, the U.S. Department of Labor has released the unadjusted year-over-year CPI for February at 2.4%, matching the expected figure of 2.40% and the previous reading of 2.40%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from last month's data. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March stands at only 0.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 99.3%.


The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady through April is 89.1%, the likelihood of cumulative 25 basis point cuts is 10.8%, and the chance of cumulative 50 basis point cuts is 0.1%.


The upcoming two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29, respectively.

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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