ChainThink report, at 20:30 Beijing Time this Friday, March 13, the U.S. will release January PCE data. Markets expect the PCE to rise 2.9% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month; the core PCE may increase to 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest gain since April 2024.

Analysts point out that although recent CPI data indicate a moderation in inflationary pressures, the PCE’s higher weighting on goods prices could see price increases in certain categories—such as software and jewelry—further fuel core PCE growth. If core PCE rises significantly above CPI, the divergence between the two indicators could reach its widest level in decades.

Given that the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on the PCE metric when formulating monetary policy, a rebound in inflation could dampen expectations for rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, ongoing Middle East conflicts are driving up oil prices, potentially escalating energy, transportation, and food costs, introducing new upside risks to future inflation trends.