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Tom Lee: Expects U.S. stocks to enter a bear market this year, but first will hit new highs

Tom Lee: Expects U.S. stocks to enter a bear market this year, but first will hit new highs

2026-03-16 19:53

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ChainThink report, in a recent interview with CNBC on March 16, Tom Lee stated that after months of narrow-range consolidation this year, the S&P 500 is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks. However, he cautioned that U.S. equities will eventually enter a bear market, albeit after first surging to new record highs.


Lee warned that short sellers may unleash full force as the year draws to a close.


« Our view is that we do expect a decline to occur when the market stops reacting positively to good news. So I believe we are now in a phase where software stocks, the «Magnificent Seven» of U.S. equities, and cryptocurrencies have already experienced a bear market. I think this has already squeezed out a significant amount of speculation. Therefore, my assessment is that the market will actually rise before month-end, finishing March higher, possibly reaching 7,300 points. We anticipate a bear market may emerge later this year. »


Regarding oil, Lee explained why rising oil prices are bullish for equities.


« First, the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, so our economy benefits net from rising oil prices. Second, other countries are importers. Thus, not only will the U.S. perform better domestically, but it should also outperform on a relative growth basis, which implies capital inflows back into the U.S. Third, as you mentioned, whenever we worry about global growth and growth becomes scarce, investors turn to growth stocks. The U.S. equity market is essentially a growth-oriented index, so capital will flow back into the U.S. from around the world. Therefore, I see this as a rotation story. »

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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