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FOMC Outlook Summary: Rate Cuts May Be Delayed Until October, Further Rate Cuts Face High Threshold

FOMC Outlook Summary: Rate Cuts May Be Delayed Until October, Further Rate Cuts Face High Threshold

2026-03-18 08:56

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ChainThink report: On March 18, the market generally believes that the likelihood of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at tomorrow's 2 p.m. meeting is virtually zero, and no rate cuts are expected in the near term. Futures pricing indicates that policy makers are unlikely to consider easing monetary policy before September, with October being a more probable timeframe, and even then, only one rate cut is expected this year. CNBC summarizes the mainstream expectations for this FOMC meeting as follows:


Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments stated: "The March meeting will almost certainly hold rates steady. However, any hints from Chairman Powell regarding future interest rate direction could be pivotal. Overall, the U.S. economy remains resilient. Yet this also implies that the threshold for further rate cuts in the U.S. may be quite high."


A Federal Reserve observer at Bank of America noted in a report: "Given that the market has nearly fully priced out the possibility of a rate cut in April, Powell’s ability to guide markets hinges on how much his remarks are perceived as reflecting the committee’s consensus rather than his personal views. Even setting aside this constraint, Powell’s task remains highly challenging."


Former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Roger Ferguson told CNBC he expects the committee’s post-meeting statement to describe inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path with 'cautious' language.

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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