ChainThink News: At 2:00 AM Beijing Time tomorrow, March 18, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. Markets have fully priced in no change to rates, shifting focus instead to Fed Chair Powell’s statements during the post-policy press conference. Institutional outlooks are as follows:

1. Berenberg: The room for further rate cuts is now extremely limited; the Fed is expected to deliver the final 25 basis point cut of this cycle at the June meeting.

2. Goldman Sachs: Expecting 25 basis point cuts in September and December; if the labor market weakens earlier and more severely than anticipated, a preemptive rate cut remains possible.

3. Deutsche Bank: Rates are likely to remain unchanged this week, as sharply elevated geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks triggered by soaring oil prices are eroding the scope for rate reductions.

4. Crédit Agricole: Forecasting no policy changes before year-end; while some committee members may advocate ignoring short-term inflation spikes driven by energy, the majority lean toward greater caution.

5. Rabobank: Under Powell’s leadership, the Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance; however, if Watz were to assume leadership, the Fed might adopt a more aggressive posture, potentially initiating rate cuts to counter economic downturn risks.

6. TS Lombard: Labor market concerns are resurfacing; if the energy shock fades within weeks, combined with the base effect of tariff-driven inflation later in the year and a rapid slowdown in rent inflation, two rate cuts could still be feasible this year. (Jinshi)