ChainThink report, March 18: On-chain data analyst Axel released a new research report indicating that the Bitcoin market overheating phenomenon has been fully eliminated, yet selling pressure remains unresolved, and no clear reversal signal has emerged in the market.

The report shows that the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin valuation overheating, has declined by 74% from its cycle peak of 2.603 in October 2025 to 0.674, far below the mean (1.72) and the first standard deviation band (3.55), confirming that valuation bubbles have been completely cleared. The current range of 0.5–1.0 corresponds to the neutral zone within the cycle, where market cap slightly exceeds realized cap.

However, aSOPR (7-day moving average), reflecting market participants' profit-and-loss status, has remained below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, with the latest value at 0.9926, indicating ongoing loss-selling behavior. Since last crossing above 1.0 on January 21, 2026, the indicator has failed to re-enter the profitable selling zone.

Axel emphasizes that 1.0 is the critical threshold distinguishing loss-selling from profit-selling dynamics. Until aSOPR can sustainably remain above 1.0 for multiple consecutive trading days, any rebound may face significant sell-side pressure. The key question currently is not whether Bitcoin is cheap, but whether selling pressure has dried up—so far, the answer remains negative.