ChainThink report, March 20: JPMorgan has revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7,500 to 7,200 points, citing escalating economic recession risks due to soaring oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

The bank warns that markets may be underestimating the macroeconomic impact of rising energy costs. While investors remain focused on inflation, JPMorgan believes the threat to consumer demand is more significant, which could undermine economic growth. Historically, oil price surges exceeding 30% have frequently preceded demand contraction and are often harbingers of economic recessions.

In the short term, the S&P 500 may face further downside, particularly after breaking below the 200-day moving average—a bearish signal. If selling pressure persists, the index could find support near 6,000–6,200 points.

Although JPMorgan still expects an economic recovery later this year supported by investment and stimulus measures, the rebound may be more limited due to ongoing geopolitical risks.