According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts that previously accurately forecasted the timing of U.S. strikes against Iran have invested $6,100 in the "Will the U.S.-Iran conflict cease before March 31?" proposition with a "Yes" bet, now trading at an implied probability of 8%. One of these accounts previously predicted strike timing down to the day and achieved a 16x return, while the other accurately wagered on the onset of the "Twelve-Day War" in 2025, yielding nearly a 9x profit.

Persian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X on the evening of March 11: "The only path to ending this war instigated by the Zionist regime and the United States is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, compensating for damages, and securing robust international guarantees to prevent future aggression."

The U.S. government has not issued an official concession in response to Iran’s specific demands; its public stance remains centered on requiring Iran to immediately halt military operations and sever substantial support to proxy forces across the Middle East.

Note: Based on their historical trading patterns, these traders are not betting on whether the event will actually occur, but rather exhibit positions opened with targeted profit-taking or stop-loss triggers at specific time points.

Accounts:
0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9
0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e

Total Investment: $6.1k
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