观点：美股个股离散度处于高位，需警惕半导体板块回调风险

2026-07-01 14:10

Share To

ChainThink 消息，7 月 1 日，据报道，Mott Capital Management 创始人 Michael Kramer 表示，尽管标普 500 指数持续走高，但市场内部个股离散度处于高位，科技板块潜在风险正在累积，少数股票上涨正在掩盖整体波动。

以科技股为例，Meta 股价接近 52 周低点，美光科技和 AMD 则大幅上涨。

标普 500 成分股离散度指数目前处于高位，历史上仅在 2020 年 3 月疫情暴跌及 2025 年 4 月“关税冲击”期间出现过更高水平。波动率指标也显示类似信号。

VIX 目前约为 17，仍处于相对温和区间，但衡量个股波动的 VIXEQ 接近 46，已升至历史高位，两者差距扩大至 2015 年以来最显著水平，显示市场风险正从指数层面转向个股层面。

Kramer 认为，隐含波动率最高的板块将首当其冲，半导体板块尤其值得警惕。

自 2026 年 3 月底以来，美光和 AMD 股价均已翻倍以上，Cboe 半导体 ETF 波动率指数约为罗素 2000 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数的两倍，是标普 500 指数的三倍以上。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

Recommended Reading

NVIDIA attracts $85 billion in investor demand during massive bond issuance

15 days ago

Ethereum surges over 10% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1,841.31

15 days ago

Amazon announces a multi-billion dollar investment in Missouri to build a data center campus, expected to create over 400 long-term positions

15 days ago

Binance Platform's SpaceX Perpetual Contract Trading Volume Surpasses $9 Billion, Capturing Over 60% Market Share

15 days ago

Binance platform XLM/USDT short-term spike down to $0.17, now recovered to $0.225

15 days ago

Trump: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened as of Friday, and all agreements have been signed

15 days ago

SlowMist: Aztec Connect Contract Hacked for $2.19 Million Due to ZK-Rollup L1/L2 State Boundary Vulnerability

15 days ago

NVIDIA attracts $85 billion in investor demand during massive bond issuance

Ethereum surges over 10% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1,841.31

Amazon announces a multi-billion dollar investment in Missouri to build a data center campus, expected to create over 400 long-term positions

Binance Platform's SpaceX Perpetual Contract Trading Volume Surpasses $9 Billion, Capturing Over 60% Market Share

Binance platform XLM/USDT short-term spike down to $0.17, now recovered to $0.225

Trump: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened as of Friday, and all agreements have been signed

SlowMist: Aztec Connect Contract Hacked for $2.19 Million Due to ZK-Rollup L1/L2 State Boundary Vulnerability