下周市场前瞻：美联储与欧洲央行会议纪要来袭，市场聚焦加息路径与黄金走势

2026-07-05 11:57

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ChainThink 消息，7 月 5 日，据报道，下周全球市场将迎来美联储 6 月会议纪要、欧洲央行会议纪要及多项重要经济数据，市场将重点关注通胀与利率路径判断，以及黄金短期走势。

其中，美联储会议纪要将于北京时间周四凌晨公布，市场关注新任美联储主席沃什首次主持会议的更多细节，以判断年底是否仍有加息空间。

目前利率市场已基本计价 12 月加息 25 个基点，并认为 10 月提前行动存在一定概率。威廉姆斯、洛根及沃勒等官员也将陆续发表讲话。

欧洲央行会议纪要同样将于周四公布，市场将关注其对经济增长、通胀及后续货币政策的最新评估。新西兰联储利率决议方面，市场预计加息 25 个基点的概率约为 80%。

此外，美国 ISM 非制造业 PMI、标普全球服务业 PMI 终值、EIA 原油库存及初请失业金等数据将陆续公布。

汇丰认为，在实际利率维持高位及美元偏强背景下，黄金短期或维持区间震荡，但央行购金、ETF 资金流入及全球去美元化趋势仍支撑其中长期上涨逻辑。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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