比互联网泡沫更严重：Token消费大跌20%，AI投资与销售增幅鸿沟达46%

比互联网泡沫更严重：Token消费大跌20%，AI投资与销售增幅鸿沟达46%

2026-07-06 14:39

ChainThink 消息，7 月 6 日，据报道，追踪用户实际算力支出的 Silicon Data LLM Token 消费指数较 5 月高点下跌近 20%，显示 AI 算力消费增速明显放缓，市场对大模型厂商定价能力及数千亿美元 AI 资本开支回报的质疑升温。

安联研究数据显示，AI 投资与销售额之间的增长鸿沟已达 46%，高于 2001 年电信泡沫破裂时的 32%。

不过，多头观点认为，尽管 Token 均价自 2023 年以来下跌约九成，但总支出仍增长近一倍，指数回落更接近降价后的结构性消化。监管因素也在抬升企业使用成本。

美国对前沿模型发布和跨国准入审查趋严，欧盟《人工智能法案》则对顶级模型提出更严格合规要求，促使部分企业将工作负载转向监管负担更轻的中轻量模型。硬件侧亦出现变化。

虽然顶级 GPU 和 HBM 订单已排至 2026 年、供需明显缓解或要等到 2028 年，但市场采购重心已开始从训练芯片转向推理优化硬件，行业受益格局正在调整。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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