Wintermute 周报：CPI 超预期回落叠加伊朗局势升温，BTC 逆势收涨成本周最强风险资产

Wintermute 周报：CPI 超预期回落叠加伊朗局势升温，BTC 逆势收涨成本周最强风险资产

2026-07-22 20:16

ChainThink 消息，7 月 22 日，据 Wintermute OTC 交易员 @Jjay_dm 撰文，6 月 CPI 环比下降 0.4%，为 2020 年 4 月以来最大单月降幅，整体通胀从 4.2% 降至 3.5%。

市场随后将 7 月 FOMC 定价为按兵不动，9 月加息概率从 75% 以上降至 63%。地缘风险同步升温。

美国重启对伊朗港口的海军封锁并连续第四夜实施空袭，布伦特原油单周上涨 15.54%，最高触及 87 美元/桶，能源通胀回升压力开始累积。风险资产中，加密市场本周逆势走强。

CPI 数据公布后数分钟内，BTC 从约 6.2 万美元升至 6.49 万美元，ETH 单日上涨 7% 至 1,884 美元；

CoinGlass 数据显示，首小时内约 1.34 亿美元空头遭强制平仓。BTC ETF 周二、周三合计净流入约 1.91 亿美元，结束此前连续 10 天净流出。

Wintermute 指出，本周加密市场强势更多反映市场结构修复，而非趋势确立。若 ETF 净流入持续整周且 BTC 稳守 66,000 美元上方，相对强势信号将得到确认；

若布伦特突破 90 美元或霍尔木兹海峡正式关闭，去通胀交易或面临重新定价。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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