分析：美股泡沫或超越1929年，标普500或面临极端回调，黄金白银成为避险资产

分析：美股泡沫或超越1929年，标普500或面临极端回调，黄金白银成为避险资产

2026-07-27 16:39

ChainThink 消息，7 月 27 日，资深宏观经济学家、Goldmoney 研究主管 Alasdair Macleod 警告称，当前美国股市估值泡沫程度可能已超过 1929 年大萧条前夕，金融市场面临极端回调风险。

Macleod 表示，美债市场供需失衡、海外买家减少配置及美国债务压力上升，可能推动美债收益率继续走高，并冲击美股估值。

他认为，若市场信心逆转，标普 500 指数可能出现超过 90% 的价值回撤。其还指出，美国未来 12 个月或面临约 10 万亿至 11 万亿美元的融资与再融资压力。

若美债买家减少，美联储可能被迫通过扩表和印钞稳定市场，从而进一步削弱法定货币购买力。

Macleod 认为，股票、银行存款和美元现金均依赖信用体系并存在一定对手方风险，黄金和白银作为不依赖政府信用的实物资产，可能在极端金融风险环境下成为避险选择。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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