美银：8-10月或成美股年内最艰难阶段，黄金美元等防御资产或受益

美银：8-10月或成美股年内最艰难阶段，黄金美元等防御资产或受益

2026-07-27 18:14

ChainThink 消息，7 月 27 日，据美国银行证券技术分析师 Paul Ciana 报告，历史数据显示，8 月至 10 月通常是标普 500 指数表现最弱的滚动三个月周期，美股或进入年内较艰难阶段。

报告称，自 1928 年以来，标普 500 在 8 月至 10 月期间平均回报率接近零，为 -0.02%，上涨年份占比 55%；

该阶段也是所有滚动三个月周期中平均回撤幅度最大的窗口，平均回撤达 7.35%。

Ciana 表示，季节性疲软不意味着长期趋势逆转，历史上 11 月至次年 1 月通常是美股传统强势窗口，标普 500 平均涨幅为 3.54%。

资产方面，美银认为 8 月至 10 月期间美元、美债和黄金等防御性资产往往表现较强；其中，黄金自 1992 年以来在该窗口期上涨概率为 61%，平均涨幅达 2.52%。

美银同时提示，投资者需关注季节性波动风险，并通过防御性资产配置应对潜在市场回调。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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