Ray Dalio：AI 泡沫严重程度已媲美 1929 年大萧条前夕与 2000 年互联网崩盘

2026-08-04 17:09

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ChainThink 消息，8 月 4 日，据《财富》杂志报道，桥水基金创始人 Ray Dalio 在《CEO 日记》节目中表示，当前由 AI 热潮推动的市场泡沫，已呈现出与 1929 年大萧条前夕及 2000 年互联网泡沫相似的“经典特征”。

Dalio 称，认同 GMO 联合创始人 Jeremy Grantham 此前关于“这是美国历史上最大投资泡沫”的判断。

他认为，风险核心在于“财富与金钱的混淆”：投资者持有的纸面财富无法直接消费，若市场逆转并出现集中抛售，资产价格可能从 100 美元跌至 25 美元，但债务规模不会随之下降。

Dalio 还提到，利率上升和股票发行激增可能成为刺破泡沫的触发因素。报道同时称，高盛、Apollo、BCA Research 等机构也开始承认科技板块存在“盈利泡沫”风险。

在 Dalio 的“大周期”框架下，泡沫破裂可能不只是金融事件，还可能加剧政治分裂和地缘冲突风险。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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