分析：8月比特币或维持5.8万至6.7万美元区间，突破仍需宏观与资金催化

分析：8月比特币或维持5.8万至6.7万美元区间，突破仍需宏观与资金催化

2026-08-05 14:50

ChainThink 消息，8 月 5 日，据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr 发布的 8 月比特币市场展望，BTC 目前较 2025 年 10 月创下的 12.62 万美元周期高点回撤约 50%，价格已接近链上综合持仓成本，预计 8 月大概率维持震荡走势。

报告认为，8 月最可能情景为 BTC 在 5.77 万至 6.7 万美元区间运行，概率约 55%，月底或收于 6 万至 6.4 万美元。

看跌情景概率约 30%，对应跌破 5.77 万美元并进一步测试约 5.28 万美元的链上实现价格。

看涨情景概率约 15%，需 BTC 站稳 6.7 万美元上方，并配合 ETF 资金持续流入、美债收益率回落及美元走弱，目标区间为 7.1 万至 7.4 万美元。

报告称，当前估值接近链上成本区、现货比特币 ETF 仍保持净流入，对市场形成支撑；但高利率环境、美国国债收益率维持高位及美元偏强，仍限制风险资产上行空间。

8 月美国非农就业、CPI、杰克逊霍尔央行年会等宏观事件也需关注。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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