SemiAnalysis唱衰谷歌DeepMind：已经不算最前沿AI实验室了

SemiAnalysis唱衰谷歌DeepMind：已经不算最前沿AI实验室了

2026-08-07 21:03

ChainThink 消息，8 月 7 日，据 SemiAnalysis 最新报告，谷歌 DeepMind 已不再被其视为最前沿 AI 实验室，报告称其未来重新实现 SOTA 的概率已降至零。

报告认为，DeepMind 正同时面临顶尖人才和算力流失。Jeff Dean、Sanjay Ghemawat、Quoc Le 和 Oriol Vinyals 近期集体离开谷歌创业；

此前 Gemini 联合负责人 Noam Shazeer 已转投 OpenAI，诺奖得主 John Jumper 加入 Anthropic。

算力方面，SemiAnalysis 估算，2026 年第三季度至 2027 年第四季度，超过 20% 的 TPU 出货将直接卖给 Anthropic，相当于将部分稀缺算力长期分配给 Gemini 的竞争对手。

报告将相关问题归因于谷歌“官僚、缓慢、战略保守”的组织文化，并将其与 IBM、Intel 类比，称谷歌技术能力和盈利能力仍强，但最困难、最高风险的技术竞赛可能已不再是其第一优先级。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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