ChainThink report, August 12: According to Serenity, recent financial reports from multiple optoelectronics companies further validate the supply bottleneck of continuous-wave (CW) DFB lasers.

Lumentum (LITE) stated that demand for ultra-high-power CW lasers has exceeded expectations, resulting in supply-demand imbalance, with the company now possessing the ability to increase average selling prices of its laser components; its CPO production expansion remains on track, with shipments expected to begin in second half of 2027.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) noted that strong demand for optical transceivers has led to insufficient current CW laser capacity, with lasers being one of the key bottlenecks contributing to a 20% to 40% supply gap in optical transceivers, as customers continue to request increased supply and accelerated delivery timelines.

Serenity also pointed out that AAOI is currently not substantially involved in the deployment of first-generation CPO solutions, while MACOM (MTSI) is focusing more on NPO.

MTSI further confirmed that overall supply of indium phosphide-based DFB lasers remains tight, with heightened urgency from customers seeking stable supply.

In terms of competitive landscape, Serenity cited management statements from AAOI and Lumentum indicating that Chinese vendors remain significantly behind in CPO laser technology.

AAOI estimated the gap to be over two to three years, while Lumentum stated it has not yet observed Chinese manufacturers achieving qualified production capacity and output levels commensurate with their public claims.

Serenity believes that high entry barriers persist for first-generation CPO-related lasers, and there has been no surge in supply as suggested by some short-sellers.

It also mentioned Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), noting that its market capitalization of approximately $1.5 billion remains relatively small compared to CPO-related players such as Coherent, Lumentum, and Broadcom, with future growth primarily contingent upon the upcoming shift in next-generation optical communication architectures.