美银：AI泡沫下最优策略是做多科技龙头与超跌资产，同时做空AI债券

2026-08-15 20:19

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ChainThink 消息，8 月 15 日，据美银证券首席策略师 Michael Hartnett 最新研报，在当前 AI 泡沫环境下，最优策略是同时做多 AI 科技龙头和被市场长期冷落的失意资产，并建议做空 AI 债券。

报告显示，美银牛熊指标从 9.7 小幅回落至 9.3，仍处极端看多区间并维持“卖出”信号，但自 5 月发出信号以来，全球股市仍录得上涨。

与此同时，资金正持续流向黄金和大宗商品，科技股出现七周来最大单周流出，私人客户股票仓位也升至历史新高。

Hartnett 认为，主导泡沫见顶前夕，新兴市场或超跌周期性资产通常会受益于溢出效应，当前最可能复制这一路径的是消费板块。

报告还指出，逾 1 万亿美元的 AI 资本开支叠加负现金流，将给相关债券带来较大发行压力；

在美国国债规模逼近 40 万亿美元、偿债成本上升的背景下，美银将收益率走势视为最大变量，并提示美日汇率干预释放出不希望 10 年期美债收益率突破 5% 的信号。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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