ChainThink report, August 18: According to Morgan Stanley's latest Greater China semiconductor report, the firm maintains its "attractive" outlook on the Greater China tech semiconductor sector, expecting the upward pricing momentum for DDR4 to persist through Q4 of this year, with some older memory product categories potentially seeing price increases extending into 2027.

The report notes that major memory manufacturers continue exiting supply of mature products such as DDR4, and the supply-demand dynamics for legacy memory remain improving. Morgan Stanley anticipates DDR4 prices will rise approximately 50% in Q3, with double-digit growth expected in Q4 as well.

Consumer electronics demand is broadening beyond server-driven demand alone.

Morgan Stanley sees the strongest price performance outlook for SLC NAND, forecasting price increases exceeding 50% in both Q3 and Q4, primarily due to capacity constraints and suppliers' reluctance to reallocate wafer capacity.

The report also believes that the migration from MLC to SLC will support continued price appreciation through the first half of 2027; following recent price hikes, NOR Flash may experience another round of price increases in Q4, with momentum extending into the first half of 2027.

In terms of individual stocks, Morgan Stanley has upgraded earnings forecasts for Winbond, Macronix, GigaDevice, and Powerchip.

Specifically, Winbond’s EPS estimates for 2026–2028 were raised by 17%, 30%, and 34%, respectively; Macronix’s were increased by 139%, 144%, and 147%.

GigaDevice’s target price was reduced from NT$888 to NT$750, but its 2026–2028 EPS forecasts were still upgraded by 108%, 49%, and 48%, respectively.