Arthur Hayes：ETH年内看涨至1万美元，美联储扩表将为加密市场注入流动性

Arthur Hayes：ETH年内看涨至1万美元，美联储扩表将为加密市场注入流动性

2026-09-03 09:37

ChainThink 消息，9 月 3 日，BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在最新文章中表示，其当前宏观交易「北极星」是欧元兑日元（EURJPY），预计该汇率将从约 185 降至明年 6 月的 140 或更低。

他认为，美国财政部长 Scott Bessent 正推动美元相对日元走弱，引导日本及亚洲资金回流，同时促使欧洲资产承压。

Hayes 指出，法国财政赤字高企、债务增加，加之依赖外国资本，使其成为欧元区最脆弱环节，法国银行和国债市场可能面临持续资金流出。

日本企业被要求加速海外资金回流，将推动日元走强，并可能导致亚洲投资者减持欧洲资产。

法国银行若退出部分回购市场，可能推高美债融资成本并迫使对冲基金去杠杆，进而迫使纽约联储扩大回购市场操作，美联储资产负债表扩张速度或加快至每月近 100 亿美元。

Hayes 认为，这一系列变化将形成「先收紧、后放水」的流动性链条，加密市场将是流动性扩张的最快受益资产之一。

他维持对 2026 年年底的价格目标：以太坊（ETH）达 1 万美元、Ethena（ENA）达 0.5 美元、ETHFI 达 2 美元，并建议关注 EURJPY 看跌期权，同时维持对比特币的结构性多头仓位。

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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