Glassnode：BTC低波动真正原因为长期持有者锁住筹码，暂时性稳态随时将被打破

Glassnode：BTC低波动真正原因为长期持有者锁住筹码，暂时性稳态随时将被打破

2026-09-08 17:57

ChainThink 消息，9 月 8 日，据 Glassnode 发布的分析，比特币当前波动率处于历史低位，但真正压制波动的并非市值增长，而是长期持有者（LTH）锁住筹码。

回归模型对“去趋势后已实现波动率”的解释力显示，长期持有者供给占比是最强因子，解释力接近 19% 至 20%；

非流动供给约 12%，活跃度约 11.5%，市值本身仅约 3.5%，稳定币比率接近为零。

Glassnode 认为，BTC 越集中在不爱交易的长期持有者手中，可供砸盘和短线炒作的浮筹越少，已实现波动越低。当前低波动是筹码分布驱动的暂时性稳态，而非结构性永久变化；

一旦长期持有者开始出货或非流动供给重新活跃，波动率可能从低位迅速弹起。杠杆、资金费率和期货持仓的影响排在持币结构之后。

Glassnode：BTC低波动真正原因为长期持有者锁住筹码，暂时性稳态随时将被打破

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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