分析：为何比特币8.2万美元难以突破？长短期持有者与巨鲸群集中博弈

分析：为何比特币8.2万美元难以突破？长短期持有者与巨鲸群集中博弈

2026-09-12 01:10

ChainThink消息，9月12日，据 X 平台消息，分析师 Murphy 发文分析称，比特币 82,000 美元难以突破与筹码结构相关。

短期持有者（STH）筹码分布在 59,000 至 81,000 美元区间，突破 82,000 美元意味着所有 STH 均实现盈利，部分短期投机资金会选择获利了结，构成第一层卖压。

长期持有者（LTH）筹码分布较广，但最集中的筹码峰位于 81,000 至 82,000 美元，其中部分或因买入后套牢而被动转为长期持有，价格接近盈亏平衡时可能离场，形成第二层卖压。

此外，持有量超过 10 万枚 BTC 的巨鲸群，除在 40,000 美元附近有两处持仓外，其余集中在 78,000 至 82,000 美元区间。

Murphy 认为，短期突破 82,000 美元确有阻力，市场需要时间消化分歧与供应；一旦重新蓄力成功突破，前方阻力或将明显减弱。

分析：为何比特币8.2万美元难以突破？长短期持有者与巨鲸群集中博弈

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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