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Garrett Jin explains why he was bearish before the crash: the market showed overbought signals, and trade tensions escalated

Garrett Jin explains why he was bearish before the crash: the market showed overbought signals, and trade tensions escalated

2025-10-13 17:40

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ChainThink news, October 13, Garrett Jin, a large whale who previously sold over $4.23 billion in BTC to switch to ETH, published his bearish views before the 1011 crash:


From a technical analysis perspective, at that time, US tech stocks, A-shares tech stocks, and major cryptocurrencies all showed overbought signals, such as MACD divergences;


Cryptocurrencies and US tech stocks have historically shown a high positive correlation, which leads us to believe that risks can be transferred between them. In the past week, we observed a shift in the structure of the US stock market, from risk-seeking trading to risk-averse trading. The cryptocurrency market also showed a similar pattern;


Since September 26, trade tensions have escalated, but due to the bullish sentiment in the market, investors largely ignored this tension. Last Friday, this situation became severe just before the stock market crash;


Both A-shares and US stock markets entered a safe-haven mode before the 1011 crash. We cannot predict when President Trump will take retaliatory measures, but our internal quantitative system has already issued a risk alert;


The market decline was not only caused by macroeconomic factors, but also by internal structural instability: both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market have been driven by high-leverage long positions recently, creating fertile ground for a deleveraging crisis similar to the 2015 A-share crash and the March 2020 US stock market crash. Unlike stocks, most cryptocurrencies lack an intrinsic value anchor, and their driving force is more based on investor sentiment - greed and fear. Therefore, trading platforms offer retail investors aggressive leverage ranging from 5x to 100x for such volatile assets, which may trigger liquidity crises regardless of whether the price rises or falls.


Garrett Jin previously stated this morning that he has no relation with the Trump family, the asset reallocation did not involve insider information, and the fund does not belong to him, but belongs to the clients.

#ETH

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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