ChainThink report, November 19, Matrixport released its daily icon watch, stating that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries in this Bitcoin bull cycle. Previously, the market had been concerned whether the company would be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to repay debts. Based on the current balance sheet structure and debt maturity distribution, we assess that the probability of "forced selling Bitcoin to repay debts" in the short term is relatively low, and it is not the main risk source at present.

The investors who have the most pressure are those who bought at high premiums. Most of Strategy's financing occurred during a period when the stock price approached a historical high of $474 and the net asset value (NAV) was at its peak. As NAV gradually declined and premiums compressed, the stock price fell from $474 to $207. Investors who entered at high premium levels therefore face significant unrealized losses.

Comparing with the current Bitcoin rally, Strategy's current stock price has significantly declined from its previous high, making its valuation relatively more attractive. Additionally, the expectation of being included in the S&P 500 index in December still exists. Nevertheless, this adjustment reminds us that timing and valuation are equally important, and investors need to be more cautious in controlling entry prices and buying timing.