ChainThink report, December 14: According to a Financial Times analysis, investors are uniformly expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold its key interest rate steady at 2% next week, given ECB President Christine Lagarde’s assessment that the institution is in "good shape," shifting focus instead toward its economic projections. Lagarde stated this week that policymakers may revise upward their growth forecasts for the eurozone during the upcoming meeting. These more robust growth projections, coupled with persistently elevated inflation, have recently prompted traders to increase bets on further rate hikes by the ECB in 2025.

However, due to ongoing debate over the potential shift in monetary policy direction and the fact that swap market pricing only recently began reflecting this change, traders will be particularly attentive to cues regarding the timing of rate hikes. Any adjustment in policy signals is expected to be subtle. George Moran, Eurozone economist at RBC Capital Markets, stated he expects no rate hike from the ECB in 2026, as "cyclical tailwinds may be temporary." He added that the ECB has "clearly signaled it does not wish to overreact to temporary deviations from targets." (Jinshi)