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Musk says new Grok model to be launched this year, but probability of release within the year now stands at only 23%

Musk says new Grok model to be launched this year, but probability of release within the year now stands at only 23%

2025-12-15 18:35

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ChainThink report, on December 15, according to PolyBeats, after Elon Musk posted on December 7 that Grok 4.20 would be released within 3 to 4 weeks, he reaffirmed on the 10th that Grok 4.20 would launch within three weeks, sparking market speculation over the exact release timeline and leading to the creation of betting markets centered around "Will Grok 4.20 be released before X month X day?".


Based on Musk’s tweet timeline, Grok 4.20 should be released before December 31, yet the current probability of a pre-December 31 release stands at only 23%. Given potential slowdowns in engineering team productivity due to Christmas and New Year holidays, the market generally views a year-end launch as unlikely.


Currently, the probabilities for the other three date milestones are: January 15 – 75%, January 31 – 83%, and April 20 – 96%.

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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