ChainThink message, December 21, IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media stating, "2025 is the darkest year for the crypto market, yet it marks the dawn of the institutional era. This represents a fundamental shift in market structure—most people are still viewing the new era through the lens of outdated cycle logic. A retrospective on the 2025 crypto market reveals a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation: institutional holdings now account for 24% of core data, retail exit reaches 66%, and the market turnover has been completed. Although BTC declined 5.4% in 2025, it once reached an all-time high of $126,080. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue accumulating at 'high' levels—not because of price, but due to cycle conviction. Retail is selling; institutions are buying. This is not a bull market peak—it's the institutional accumulation phase.

The mid-term elections will take place in November 2026. Historical patterns show "policy pre-emption in election years," so the investment thesis should be: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, favoring bullish momentum; the second half of 2026 brings heightened political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, risks remain—Fed policy, strong USD, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued LTH sell-offs, and uncertain midterm election outcomes. Yet risk also presents opportunity—when consensus turns bearish, it’s often the optimal time to position.

Short-term (3–6 months): Range-bound between $87,000 and $95,000, with institutions continuing accumulation

Middle-term (first half of 2026): Dual-driven by policy and institutional flows, target range of $120,000 to $150,000

Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, dependent on election results and policy continuity

This is not a cycle top—it’s the beginning of a new cycle. 2025 marks accelerated institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite BTC’s negative annual return, ETF investors demonstrated exceptional HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 was the worst year for crypto—but in reality, it was the largest supply turnover, strongest institutional allocation intent, clearest policy support, and most comprehensive infrastructure development. Although prices fell 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion—bullish for the first half of 2026. Key watchpoints for 2026 include progress on market structure legislation, potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity post-midterm elections. Long-term, the maturation of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next upward phase. When market structure undergoes a fundamental transformation, old valuation models become obsolete, and new pricing power is re-established.