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The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January drops to 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged through March stands at 44.7%.

The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January drops to 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged through March stands at 44.7%.

2025-12-22 18:59

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ChainThink report, December 22: According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 has fallen below 20%, now at 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged stands at 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a January rate cut had risen to 31%.


The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates unchanged through March 2026 is 44.7%, with a 46.5% chance of cumulative 25 basis point cuts, and an 8.8% probability of cumulative 50 basis point cuts.


The upcoming two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, respectively.

Disclaimer: Contains third-party opinions, does not constitute financial advice

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