ChainThink report, December 23: Bitcoin has recently rebounded to near $90,000, providing a short-term boost to the crypto market, but analysts generally agree this move is insufficient to signal a trend reversal. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin's cumulative decline in Q4 2025 has exceeded 22%, potentially marking one of the worst-performing quarters since 2018, second only to major bear market years.

Although the total crypto market capitalization has reclaimed the key psychological threshold of $3 trillion, market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts note that this rebound is primarily driven by technical recovery following prolonged declines, rather than fresh capital inflows. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, stated that the current movement "is not a genuine recovery," with only limited improvement in market sentiment.

As of the Asian trading session, Bitcoin hovered around $88,000—approximately 30% below its 2025 peak and still below year-start levels. Major tokens remain range-bound overall; XRP, ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE posted modest gains, while AAVE continued to weaken amid governance controversies, down roughly 7% over the past 24 hours.

Seasonal factors further reinforce cautious expectations. Historical data shows that while Q4 is typically a strong period for Bitcoin, in years marked by tightening liquidity and heightened macro uncertainty, significant pullbacks are also common near year-end. The current market continues to exhibit frequent retracements during U.S. trading hours, indicating elevated short-term price volatility risks.