ChainThink report, December 26, at 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin experienced its largest annual settlement in history, valued at a record $23.7 billion. Historical market performance following past settlements is outlined below:

December 29, 2023 (Annual Settlement), notional value approximately $11 billion, peak gamma pain around $42,000.

Before expiry: Market remained under extreme compression, with BTC price consolidating narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000.

After expiry: The "cage" suppressing volatility dissipated, BTC rapidly expanded volume and broke through, initiating a strong directional move toward $48,000 at the start of 2024.

March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $15 billion, peak gamma pain around $65,000.

Before expiry: Market oscillated between $60,000 and $70,000 amid Bitcoin halving anticipation, exhibiting high volatility; active hedging activity caused short-term suppression.

After expiry: Following gamma hedge unwind, BTC surged upward, driven by halving momentum to exceed $70,000, marking the acceleration phase of the bull cycle.

June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $17 billion, peak gamma pain around $60,000.

Before expiry: Market entered a correction phase, with BTC trading narrowly around $60,000; selling pressure intensified, and gamma pinning effects became pronounced.

After expiry: Short-term volatility amplified; BTC initially declined before rebounding, but overall maintained a corrective trend without immediate strong bullish reversal.

September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $18 billion, peak gamma pain around $62,000.

Before expiry: Affected by Federal Reserve policy, price consolidated between $55,000 and $65,000 with moderate liquidity; hedging compressed the range.

After expiry: Volatility increased post-settlement; BTC broke above resistance, benefiting from dovish rate cut expectations, triggering a rebound rally toward $70,000.

December 27, 2024 (Annual Settlement), notional value approximately $19.8 billion, peak gamma pain around $75,000.

Before expiry: Peak bull market phase, price fluctuating between $70,000 and $80,000; call option dominance weakened upward pressure, but holiday thin liquidity prevailed.

After expiry: Post-hedge unwind, BTC sustained bull momentum, quickly breaking above $80,000, with year-end Christmas season driving further price appreciation.

March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $14 billion, peak gamma pain around $85,000.

Before expiry: Amid regulatory tailwinds, price oscillated between $80,000 and $90,000; optimistic sentiment persisted but short-term downside risks remained; gamma provided floor support.

After expiry: Volatility surged post-expiry; BTC broke above $85,000, launching a strong rally targeting $100,000.

June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $14.5 billion, peak gamma pain around $102,000.

Before expiry: Mixed market sentiment, significant price swings observed.

After expiry: Short-term pullback post-settlement, but overall trend remained upward, with no extreme volatility observed.

August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), notional value approximately $13.8–14.5 billion, peak gamma pain around $116,000.

Before expiry: Thin holiday liquidity; price traded in a narrow band between $110,000 and $120,000, with enhanced gamma trap effect.

After expiry: BTC briefly dipped below the peak gamma pain level before recovering swiftly; volatility expanded but rebounded quickly, maintaining the overarching bull structure.

December 26, 2025 (Today’s Annual Settlement), notional value approximately $23.6 billion, peak gamma pain around $96,000.

Before expiry: Thin liquidity due to Christmas holiday combined with rising precious metal prices led BTC to trade narrowly between $85,000 and $90,000; aggressive gamma hedging suppressed volatility.

After expiry: Expected dissolution of the "cage" post-settlement will significantly amplify market volatility, potentially breaking above the $90,000 range. Some analysts anticipate a move toward $100,000 and even the initiation of a new-year rally.