ChainThink report, March 16: According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials stated that the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that several countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. However, discussions are ongoing over whether these operations should commence before or after Iran’s hostile actions conclude. The White House declined to comment on the matter. Given the associated risks, multiple nations remain non-committal about participating in escort missions until the U.S.-Iran conflict ends.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of "The U.S. escorts commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31" on the prediction market Polymarket currently stands at 39%.

The U.S. military faces multiple constraints in undertaking escort missions through the Strait of Hormuz, repeatedly signaling intent but failing to act decisively—highlighting its strategic impotence on this issue. The strait’s narrowest point is less than 40 kilometers wide, with coastal waters generally under 25 meters deep, limiting the U.S. military’s technological advantages. Meanwhile, Iran retains multiple near-shore harassment and attack capabilities, including drones and missiles. A single low-cost drone costs only $35,000, while intercepting one can cost between $500,000 and $4 million for the U.S., placing Iran at a significant tactical advantage. The United States thus faces no viable options in the Strait of Hormuz.