Recently, due to continuous hints from Polymarket’s official team regarding the $POLY token, various crypto farming communities have analyzed the potential timing and scale of the $POLY airdrop from different angles. According to predict.fun data, the probability of "Polymarket launching its official token before year-end" currently stands at 56%; even 7% of predictions suggest the launch could occur before Q2 of this year.

Additionally, in terms of market valuation, the probability of "Polymarket’s FDV exceeding $6 billion one day after launch" is currently at 51%, while there is a 34% chance that FDV will surpass $10 billion within the same timeframe.

Timeline of Official Token Hints from Polymarket

October 2025: Early Signals and Official Confirmation for POLY Token

Official signals around the $POLY token can be traced back to October last year.

On October 8, 2025, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan posted on X, listing $POLY alongside BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL—sparking widespread speculation within the community about an upcoming token launch. While not an official announcement, the founder personally referencing $POLY was already highly sensitive for the market. Following this post, discussions around Polymarket’s potential token issuance began to intensify significantly.

Subsequently, airdrop expectations were further amplified by statements from official team members. On October 23, 2025, Polymarket’s Growth Lead William LeGate mentioned “prospective airdrop farmers” during a podcast or public discussion—indicating the existence of user behavior and market anticipation centered around a potential $POLY airdrop. Though not formal policy, this acknowledgment confirmed that such expectations were already active in the ecosystem.

The turning point came on October 24, 2025, when Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber explicitly stated in a podcast: “Polymarket will have a token, and it will have an airdrop.” This declaration marked the critical shift from community speculation to official confirmation of a token launch.

By November, the focus of official discourse evolved from whether an airdrop would happen to which behaviors would *not* qualify for distribution. On November 11, 2025, William LeGate directly addressed Sybil farming, stating unequivocally: “I can tell you clearly—accounts created through Sybil attacks will not receive airdrop allocations. They’re just wasting their time.”

April of This Year: POLY Preview Pages Launched on Major Crypto Data Platforms

Entering April this year, expectations around the $POLY token extended to major cryptocurrency data platforms.

Currently, both CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap feature preview pages for Polymarket (POLY). Although these pages do not equate to official token issuance nor confirm a TGE date, the fact that external platforms have reserved space for $POLY further strengthens community confidence in Polymarket’s upcoming token launch.

May of This Year: From Airdrop Speculation to Product-Driven Hints

As May approached, discussions around $POLY shifted toward concrete functionality and eligibility criteria for airdrop participation.

On the evening of May 4, Polymarket team member Mustafa responded to community inquiries about $POLY staking, specifically addressing the possibility of staking to reduce order fees or future quote fees. His reply was simply: “Soon.” The brevity and context of this response were quickly interpreted by the community as strong evidence that Polymarket is actively preparing for token launch.

On May 13, additional clues emerged. Polymarket Product Lead Dustin Karp shared a workspace photo, casually mentioning he passed Mustafa’s desk. In the image, a suspected internal page related to the $POLY airdrop appeared, with a visible “Airdrop” label upon magnification—further fueling speculation around the airdrop timeline.

Later, Growth Lead LeGate also weighed in on official badge criteria. He clarified that blue badges denote Polymarket employees; Traders badges are primarily for users with cumulative profits reaching $100k, or other high-volume traders (with prior tweets specifying over $10M in trading volume, though he noted flexibility based on active participation on Polymarket); Builders badges are reserved for projects developing and building within the Polymarket ecosystem.

Badges may not be the sole determinant for airdrop eligibility. When asked whether X content contributions would earn $POLY rewards, LeGate replied that linking an X account to a Polymarket profile constitutes only one-third of the required conditions. Additional actions include adding your Polymarket profile URL to your X bio and actively sharing your trades, profit records, and market insights on X to maintain community engagement.

While this response did not explicitly confirm whether “mouth-farming” (content-driven participation) would yield actual airdrops, the broader community remains optimistic and has intensified activity on X to increase visibility and potentially qualify for future distributions.

Personal Strategy

Having deeply participated in prediction markets throughout the first half of this year, I still lean toward Polymarket not launching its token before the World Cup.

The reasoning is straightforward: Polymarket’s immediate priority may not be token issuance, but rather refining user experience and infrastructure. Whether it’s ongoing V2 optimization or potential chain migration, these efforts are fundamentally aimed at handling high-traffic, high-frequency scenarios like the World Cup. For Polymarket, if platform stability falters during peak events—even with a pre-launch token—the platform would struggle to retain new users and scale transaction volume effectively.

Therefore, recent strategy remains focused on hedging: placing orders on predict.fun to accumulate points, then offsetting positions on Polymarket. Simultaneously, participating in events on Polymarket with a profit-oriented mindset. Additionally, I’ve linked my personal X account to Polymarket and am actively posting content related to Polymarket on X, hoping to capture a portion of future airdrop rewards as a “mouth-farmer”.

Original article: Odaily Planet Daily